Wisdom of Crowds Review – Those Who Fell Short of Our Expectations This is the third part in our series looking back to see how our Wisdom of Crowds scoring predictions for each player compared with their actual scoring during the recently completed season. Today’s post focuses on the players whose scoring was below our predictions.
Mouph scored only 9.9 PPG (7.9 PPG OOC) vs. our prediction of 12.5. However, Mouph really stepped his game up as the season progressed, scoring 11.2 PPG once conference got underway. I have already publicly apologized to Mouph for my comments back in December when I called him "the biggest recruiting disappointment on this team’s roster" and made the regrettable comment that "the potential that was Mouph has all but vanished." Mouph became a solid scorer, rebounder and defender and emerged as the heart and soul and unquestioned leader of this team. Mouph had eight double-doubles in conference play and led the team in rebounding (7.8 RPG). Despite taking more of his shots fifteen feet or more from the basket, he still had the second highest FG% (47.8%) behind only Maurice Sutton. Over the course of the season, he scored more than ten points 19 times and less than ten points 15 times. However, the team seemed to sputter when he accounted for too much offense, winning two-thirds of the time when he scored 9 or less points, but only 53% when he scored more. The Cats lost both games that Mouph scored 20 points (LaSalle and Notre Dame).
I cringed when putting Mouph on a list of players who fell short of our expectations. Although he scored a bit less than we expected, he exceeded our expectations in every other way – as a leader, as a warrior and as a representative of Villanova University. How wonderful would it have been if he had redshirted during his hepatitis-shortened freshman year and we could watch Mouph for one more season. We salute you Mouph. You will be missed!
We had high expectations for the former captain of Croatia’s U-18 team, predicting he would score 5.4 PPG. He did not come close, scoring only 0.1 PPG (down from 0.3 PPG OOC). He saw action in only 16 games, averaging only 3.2 minutes when he did see the floor. He attempted only five field goals all season, four from behind the arc, but never found the bottom of the net. The two points he scored came from the charity stripe. Brzoja was disadvantaged by not training with the team until September and he never seemed to catch up. Let’s hope that with another year with the team, his sophomore campaign comes closer to matching the success he had on the Croatia U-18 team. However, like Yacoubou, Brzoja represents significant flight risk.
As starter who scored 9.0 PPG for Wake Forest, we expected Chennault to be the starting PG and score 8.0 PPG for the Cats. The emergence of Ryan Arcidiacono as starting PG limited Chennault’s play to 18.5 MPG and 3.6 PPG (down from 4.4 PPG in OOC play). The tragic death of his brother last summer and the continuing health issues of his mother weighed heavily on Chennault and affected his play according to Coach Wright. He scored a season-high 11 points in the win over Monmouth and was held scoreless seven times. Over the course of the season, he scored less than five points 25 times and five or more points nine times. The Cats won 71% of its games when he scored six or more points, and 56% when he scored less. Among regulars, he had the second lowest FG% (35.5%) trailing only Ryan Arcidiacono. Chennault’s play seemed to improve half-way through conference play as he became more comfortable running the point within Villanova’s offensive sets. As one of two seniors on next year’s squad, Chennault will be asked to pick up more of the leadership role with the departure of Mouph Yarou.
We predicted Mo would score 4.7 PPG, but he fell short of the mark at only 3.3 PPG (down a bunch from his 6.2 PPG in OOC play). Sutton has always been a selective shooter and hit 50% from the field this season, best on the team. He scored a season high 12 points in the season opener against District of Columbia, but would score in double figures only one more time – against New Jersey Institute of Technology. He scored less than five points 21 times and more than five points 12 times. He scored in only two games after the loss at Providence on January 16, as he found himself at the end of the bench with Mislav Brzoja and Achraf Yacoubou. After five years in the program, Sutton will be remembered as a team leader and energy guy who was the most effective shot blocker on the team.
Expected Villanova to score 72.7 PPG. They scored only 67.9 (down from70.7 OOC). Despite a lower octane offense, the team found a way to win more through better defense.