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Gambling odds on FCS games are rare, so we turn to Jeff Sagarin's formula to predict the outcome of the Villanova-Georgia State football game.
If you're a college football fan, you've probably heard of Jeff Sagarin and the computer rankings that he applies to various sports. Most notably, his computer rankings are used in determining the participants in the NCAA basketball tournament and in the BCS rankings.
If you're not familiar with the Sagarin ratings, I would suggest reading the ratings overview at the Sagarin website (the full team-by-team ratings are also in there.
Games are now "well-connected" meaning that the ratings are unbiased towards last season's results.
Here's a look at the current ratings for the CAA conference (HA = Home Advantage):
| NCAA RANK | TEAM | RATING | ELO-CHESS | PREDICTOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HA = 2.66 | HA = 2.49 | HA = 2.79 | ||
| 98 | James Madison | 62.94 | 65.38 | 62.34 |
| 108 | Villanova | 61.43 | 60.47 | 61.45 |
| 110 | New Hampshire |
61.37 | 61.20 | 61.24 |
| 119 | Richmond | 59.93 | 55.30 | 60.66 |
| 121 | Old Dominion | 59.39 | 59.14 | 59.28 |
| 133 | Towson | 56.99 | 56.03 | 57.01 |
| 134 | Delaware | 56.79 | 55.98 | 56.79 |
| 136 | Maine | 56.05 | 52.15 | 56.62 |
| 139 | William & Mary |
55.47 | 49.48 | 56.40 |
| 212 |
Georgia State |
37.58 | 38.28 | 37.28 |
| 231 |
Rhode Island |
31.29 | 32.40 | 30.90 |
The first thing to note is that Villanova actually rose 14 spots in the overall football rankings after their win at Old Dominion last weekend.
Based on the current ratings, Villanova would be an approximate 21.5-point favorite when using the Pure Points/Predictor rating, and about a 22-point favorite when using the blended ratings.
Despite a blowout victory over Rhode Island last weekend, GSU are not in the same class as Villanova and the Wildcats defense and running game should dominate the proceedings on Saturday.
What do you think of the Sagarin ratings and their validity in predicting the Villanova-Georgia State game?
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