Villanova vs. Towson: Sagarin Ratings & Predictions

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Gambling odds on FCS games are rare, so we turn to Jeff Sagarin's formula to predict the outcome of the Villanova-Towsonfootball game.

If you're a college football fan, you've probably heard of Jeff Sagarin and the computer rankings that he applies to various sports. Most notably, his computer rankings are used in determining the participants in the NCAA basketball tournament and in the BCS rankings.

If you're not familiar with the Sagarin ratings, I would suggest reading the ratings overview at the Sagarin website (the full team-by-team ratings are also in there.

Games are now "well-connected" meaning that the ratings are unbiased towards last season's results.

Here's a look at the current ratings for the CAA conference (HA = Home Advantage):

NCAA RANK TEAM RATING ELO-CHESS PREDICTOR
HA = 2.47 HA = 2.50 HA = 2.59
107 Old Dominion
60.91 62.92 60.30
109 Villanova 60.36 60.55 60.09
112 New Hampshire
59.73 61.17 59.23
113 Richmond 59.67 57.56 59.83
118 James Madison
59.32 56.77 59.58
132 Towson 55.73 51.84 56.22
146 Maine 53.23 47.31 54.06
147 Delaware 52.81 49.97 53.10
152 William & Mary
51.87 43.11 53.11
217

Georgia State

34.26 33.80 34.12
237

Rhode Island

26.40 24.88 26.44

The first thing to note is that Villanova's ratings actually fell despite their win over Georgia State - but this likely has a lot more to do with playing GSU than anything else.

Based on the current ratings, Villanova would be an approximate 6-point favorite when using the Pure Points/Predictor rating, and about a 7-point favorite when using the blended ratings.

Towson, who have been missing Terrance West for most of the season, have been struggling mightily despite being champions of the CAA in 2011. This is not an opponent to overlook however as Villanova will need to win this game if it hopes to stay in the hunt for the CAA championship and make their return to the FCS playoffs.

What do you think of the Sagarin ratings and their validity in predicting the Villanova-Towson game?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join VU Hoops

You must be a member of VU Hoops to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at VU Hoops. You should read them.

Join VU Hoops

You must be a member of VU Hoops to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at VU Hoops. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker