Villanova vs. Towson: Sagarin Ratings & Predictions

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Gambling odds on FCS games are rare, so we turn to Jeff Sagarin's formula to predict the outcome of the Villanova-Towsonfootball game.

If you're a college football fan, you've probably heard of Jeff Sagarin and the computer rankings that he applies to various sports. Most notably, his computer rankings are used in determining the participants in the NCAA basketball tournament and in the BCS rankings.

If you're not familiar with the Sagarin ratings, I would suggest reading the ratings overview at the Sagarin website (the full team-by-team ratings are also in there.

Games are now "well-connected" meaning that the ratings are unbiased towards last season's results.

Here's a look at the current ratings for the CAA conference (HA = Home Advantage):

NCAA RANK TEAM RATING ELO-CHESS PREDICTOR
HA = 2.47 HA = 2.50 HA = 2.59
107 Old Dominion
60.91 62.92 60.30
109 Villanova 60.36 60.55 60.09
112 New Hampshire
59.73 61.17 59.23
113 Richmond 59.67 57.56 59.83
118 James Madison
59.32 56.77 59.58
132 Towson 55.73 51.84 56.22
146 Maine 53.23 47.31 54.06
147 Delaware 52.81 49.97 53.10
152 William & Mary
51.87 43.11 53.11
217

Georgia State

34.26 33.80 34.12
237

Rhode Island

26.40 24.88 26.44

The first thing to note is that Villanova's ratings actually fell despite their win over Georgia State - but this likely has a lot more to do with playing GSU than anything else.

Based on the current ratings, Villanova would be an approximate 6-point favorite when using the Pure Points/Predictor rating, and about a 7-point favorite when using the blended ratings.

Towson, who have been missing Terrance West for most of the season, have been struggling mightily despite being champions of the CAA in 2011. This is not an opponent to overlook however as Villanova will need to win this game if it hopes to stay in the hunt for the CAA championship and make their return to the FCS playoffs.

What do you think of the Sagarin ratings and their validity in predicting the Villanova-Towson game?

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