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Closest to the Pin Round 16: Louisville

Update: Game Results: With the Cat’s 88-74 victory vs. Cincinnati, we congratulate eleven VU Hoops readers who took medals in this game. Gold Medals: mj (86-78) and hit the bid (84-72), Pena Power (87-79), and Hugh Jass (82-74) earning 5 points each; Silver Medals: Jimmy (81-74), Barney Rubble (88-81) and Joey (85-78) earning 3 points; Bronze Medals: DMC (81-73), Simple’07 (80-74), Loser Cruiser (84-78) and Joe (81-75), earning 1 point each. Our updated leader board is provided below.

VUHoops vs. Vegas: Based on the average predicted scores of the VUHoops Crowd and the posted Vegas line, we would have won $200 by betting Villanova to cover the spread and betting the over. The details follow. We’re now +$600 for the season.

VU Hoops Vegas Bet Result
Point Spread 'Nova -5.0 'Nova -4.0 'Nova-4 WIN
Total Points 149.0 148.5 Over WIN

Leader Board After 16 Rounds

Reader Points
Joe 13.5
Pat'12 13.5
Hugh Jass 12.5
Joey 10.5
Nervous Nelly 10.5
TC'87 10.5
chuck st.petersburg 10.0
Robertrise 10.0
TK87 9.5
mj 8.0
regred 8.0
Dj pizzle 7.0
mfc4293 7.0
hit the bid 6.0
Pena Power 6.0
Kittlesfan95 5.5
Steph 5.5
Beardog 5.0
marty1029 5.0
novafan95 5.0
Two in the Pinkston 5.0
Stevie V 4.5
Andy'06 4.0
doctor feelgoodes 3.5
Jimmy 3.5
BarneyRubble 3.0
Bill '77 3.0
Ed'08 3.0
Mark Anderson 3.0
miles'88 3.0
Novachamps22 3.0
Schitzengigles 3.0
Tommyboy 3.0
Colt 2.5
Palsgraf 2.5
super nova 2.5
David '06 2.0
DMC 2.0
Simple'07 2.0
cdtoffers 1.5
CMM 1.5
DP5 1.5
EG'77 1.5
Esto 1.5
FLM'33 1.5
friartownmayor'13 1.5
Mark A 1.5
mprams 1.5
Pete (Aliti 13) 1.5
Chicken Dinner 1.0
Clarkkell 1.0
Kait'08 1.0
Loser Cruiser 1.0
Lou '06 1.0
Matt 1.0
Rich'09 1.0
Vinny'06 1.0
bgunn 0.5
Brendan '10 0.5
Christopher Coggins 0.5
David 0.5
FishersTalent13 0.5
mattymo 0.5

Update: Wednesday, January 11 (12:00 Noon). So far, 72 VUHoops readers have posted predictions, with two picking the Cardinals to win. As a group, the readers see ‘Nova winning by a score of 77-72 (a margin of 5.0 points and implied over/under of 149). The Vegas odds makers also are picking 'Nova by4.0 points and set the over/under at 148.5 points, implying a final score of 76-72.’s model agrees with our friends in Vegas, also predicting a Nova win by a score of 76-72.

VUHoops vs. Vegas: Based on the average predictions of the VUHoops readers and the Vegas posted point spread / total points, we'd make the following bets:

VU Hoops Vegas Bet
Point Spread 'Nova -5.0 'Nova -4.0 'Nova
Total Points 149.0 148.5 Over


Window Opening: Monday, January 10 (8:00 pm). The window is now open for readers to post their predicted final scores for ‘Nova’s game vs. Louisville on Wednesday at 7:00 PM (Wells Fargo Center, EPSN2) in our Closest to the Pin Contest. After fifteen rounds, Pat ’12 has taken the lead with 13.5 points. Click here to see our full leader board. In our VUHoops vs. Vegas competition, VUHoops is up $400.

The #7 Cats (14-1, 3-0) have an RPI of 16, a SOS of 81 and are scoring an average of 77.2 PPG while giving up an average of 60.9 PPG. The # 18 Cardinals (13-2, 2-0) have an RPI of 24, a SOS of 86, and score an average of 81.8 PPG while allowing an average of 62.9 PPG. Louisville’s more notable wins have come against Butler (+15), UNLV (+8), Seton Hall (+19), and South Florida (+9). Their two losses have come against Drexel (-6) and Kentucky (-15).’s model predicts a Nova win by a score of 76-72, a spread of 4.0 points and an implied over/under of 148. More statistical information about Cincinnati is available at

Be sure to check out Brian’s game preview.

Special Note: When posting predictions, please be sure to:

  • List your predicted score for Villanova first, followed by the score for the opponent (e.g., Cats 100, Owls 75)
  • All future games (except Rivalry Games), points are awarded to winners as follows: Bulls-eye = 10 points; Gold (non-bulls-eye) =5 pts; Silver = 3pts; Bronze = 1pt.
  • Note the following rule change: given the extraordinary number of readers participating in the contest, we can no longer enforce our rule prohibiting duplicate score predictions.
  • Use a consistent handle / ID so that we can keep an accurate running leader board over the course of the season. Obviously, score predictions posted by guests or anonymous readers cannot be accepted.