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Villanova vs. Pittsburgh: The Day After

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On the heels of a loss at Seton Hall, the Villanova Men's Basketball Team faltered late at #23 Pittsburgh on Sunday.

  • Villanova beat the spread by a half of a point- the 17th time this season they've done so.
  • Nova is 3-2 in Overtime games this season.
  • In the last 5 years, Villanova is 22-31 against Top 25 opponents.
  • Nova is 3-9 when scoring 64 or fewer points.
  • The Wildcats have recorded more steals and fewer turnovers than their opponents for the past five games.

Ryan Arcidiacono

  • His 23 points accounrted for 36% of Villanova's scoring output.
  • He has led the team in scoring for 8 games this season and has 5 straight double-digit scoring games.
  • It was the 5th 20-point game of his career.

Mouphtaou Yarou

  • Had 8 rebounds to lead 'Nova- the 13th time he's led the team this season.
  • Has scored in double points for 6 straight games.

JayVaughn Pinkston

  • Had a career high with 4 blocks.
  • Has scored in double-digits for 8 straight games.

Dr. Oliver’s Diagnosis

Dr. Dean Oliver, a former basketball player and coach at Cal Tech and author of the book, Basketball on Paper, maintains that only four statistics, eFG%, TO%, OR% and FT Rate, determine the outcome of most basketball games.

Ed’s model, which is based on Dr. Oliver’s work, has correctly picked the winner of 28 of 30 (93%) of Villanova games this season, including the latest loss to Pittsburgh.

The table below compares Villanova vs. Pitt’s eFG%, TO%, OR% and FT Rate in Sunday’s game. Although ‘Nova did a marginally better job protecting the ball and getting to the free throw line, Pitt did a significantly better job shooting (45.9% 2PT and 41.2% 3PT vs. ‘Nova 41.1% 2PT and 30% 3PT) and grabbing offensive rebounds (even though Steve Adams and his 2.8 ORPG did not play).


Team eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate Composite Score
Pitt 50.9% 18.8% 36.4% 44.4%
Villanova 42.6% 14.1% 27.5% 48.1%
Advantage (Disadvantage) -8.3% 4.7% -8.9% 3.7% -3.9%

    Video Highlights


    Around the Interweb

    Pittsburgh Bests Wildcats 73-64 in Overtime [Villanova.com]

    Villanova lets resume-building opportunity slip from their grasp [NBCSports]

    Talib Zanna lifts Pittsburgh past Villanova in OT [ESPN]

    Bubble watch: Virginia, Villanova suffer tough losses [Sporting News]