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Villanova Basketball Bracketology

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Where do the Cats stand with just four weeks left to play?

Villanova Mug Arizin Links

Happy Tuesday Nova Nation! March is now less than 10 days away, and Selection Sunday won’t be far behind that. It’s all but official that Villanova will be dancing a month from now, we just don’t know who will be on their dance card. For those of you who have not idea what I’m talking about, read this or ask your grandparents. What I’m trying to say is that Villanova’s potential seed is beginning to come into focus.

Best Case Scenario

Without getting into the quad system and the NET (be sure to check out my Quad Goals article later today for that), let’s just talk about possible seeds. The losses to Marquette and St. John’s have officially taken a 2 seed off the table, and now a 3 seed would be a long shot. Not only would Villanova need to win out with the best path possible (likely beating St. John’s and Marquette en route to a Big East Tournament title), they’d still need some other teams to falter in their conference tournaments. That said, it’s not entirely impossible.

Worst Case Scenario

The absolute worst thing that could happen to Villanova right now would be a complete collapse in which they lose their last five regular season games and their Big East Tournament opener. However, barring a significant injury I don’t think that’s realistic. What I could see happening is Villanova dropping a road game this week, then losing at home to Marquette, and falling in their season finale at Seton Hall. Let’s say then then have a cold shooting performance in a losing effort to open the Big East Tournament, and Nova just went 2-4 to close out the season, leaving them at 22-10. Their name and their current Q1 victories are probably enough to get them into the tournament, but at that point you’re talking about a double digit seed, possibly a play in game.

Likely Outcome

Right now most Bracketologists have the Wildcats as a 5 Seed following the St. John’s loss. Ultimately, I think Villanova will do enough to hold relatively steady. A strong performance in the Big East Tournament, especially if it included beating Marquette, could result in a bump up to a 4 seed. An earlier than expected loss, say to St. John’s at the Garden in the semi-finals, could result in them falling a seed to the 6 line.

And that begs a very interesting question, which of those is the best seed for this Villanova team? Here’s how I’d rank those three seeds, assuming no epic collapses or other worldly performances:

  • Ideally I’d hope Villanova earned a 4 seed. In that position you won’t play a team ranked better than you in the first weekend, and you have a better shot at being placed closer to home in the first round. The downside is that you’re probably facing a 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
  • I actually think I’d prefer the 6 seed over the 5 seed in this scenario. Yes, this would mean having to face a Top 15 team in the first weekend, but get by them and you don’t have to face a #1 seed until the Elite 8. If you think Villanova’s best this season is good enough to be a Top 10 team (and I do), then taking this challenge early gives them an easier path to the Regional Final.
  • The 5 seed might be the most dangerous seed in the entire tournament. It’s the only position of the Top 8 seeds that hasn’t produced a National Champion. First you have to play in the 5 v 12 upset special, where the 12 is likely one of the best Mid-Major teams in the country that just won their conference tournament. Then you have to play a higher ranked team just to make the second weekend. And if you succeed in all of that, you get a #1 seed in the Sweet 16. It’s just a really tough path to take.

I think Villanova will end up snagging a 4 seed when all is said and done. But what do I know? I leave it to you Nova Nation to vote on where you think Villanova will be seeded next month.

Poll

What will Villanova’s seed be in the 2019 NCAA Tournament?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    3 Seed
    (21 votes)
  • 31%
    4 Seed
    (191 votes)
  • 39%
    5 Seed
    (236 votes)
  • 22%
    6 Seed
    (135 votes)
  • 3%
    7+ Seed
    (21 votes)
604 votes total Vote Now

In other “news”, Lowry’s cool kicks are on display, Tim Delaney’s younger brother hits 1,000 points, and the bag dropping is back for round two at this year’s Final Four. Enjoy!

Villanova loses to St. John’s

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NBA Wildcats

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Villanova Basketball Adjacent

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College Basketball

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Bubbles and Brackets

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