Where will Villanova Basketball be seeded in the Big East Tournament?

Tonight’s game at Seton Hall is a must win if the Villanova Wildcats want a shot at winning a share of the Big East Regular Season Championship. But the game is just as big for seeding in the Big East Tournament. Heading into tonight, Villanova could wind up anywhere from the #1 to the #4 seed. While the only teams that could finish above Villanova include Seton Hall, Creighton, and Providence, literally every team in the conference comes into play when it comes to the tie breakers.

Well have no fear, your stat-obsessed friend is here, and I’ve gone through all 512 possible outcomes through the rest of the week to see how this could all shake out. On top of that, I’ve applied KenPom.com‘s predictions to determine the likelihood of each scenario playing out.

So this gives us some good news and bad news. The good news is that heading into tonight Villanova is more likely to get a Top 3 seed and avoid the dreaded four seed which would likely send Villanova on a path where they’d have to beat three NCAA Tournament teams in order to win the whole thing. The bad news, especially if Villanova loses at Seton Hall tonight, is that right now the #4 seed is far more likely than most Villanova fans may have realized.

Of the 512 possible outcomes this week, the single most likely scenario (currently with a 1.8% chance of happening) is that Villanova gets the #4 seed after losing to Seton Hall, defeating Georgetown, and then losing the tie breaker with Providence. In fact, tie breakers play a big part in whether or not Villanova will end up in the #4 seed. So what can fans root for (outside of Nova wins) to help ensure a Top 3 seed? The biggest help would be for Marquette to keep losing (thanks DePaul!) . They only have one game left at St. John’s, a game that KenPom is giving them a 54% chance to win. Why does this help? Because Creighton and Providence both swept Marquette this year while Villanova split that series.

The team to root for down the stretch would be Xavier. Obviously it’s huge if Xavier can beat Providence tonight because it gives the Friars another loss. But it’s also important because Nova swept Xavier while Providence already has a loss to the Musketeers.

For those of you super optimists, there is a scenario where Villanova wins a share of the Big East Regular Season Championship and gets the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. In order for that to happen, tonight Villanova will have to win at Seton Hall and Georgetown will have to win at Creighton. Then on Saturday, Villanova will have to win at Georgetown and Creighton will have to beat Seton Hall at home. There’s just a 2.4% chance that it happens, but it’s still a chance.