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Villanova Bracket Watch: March 4th Update

We are nine days away from Selection Sunday!

Michigan v Villanova Photo by Matt Marriott/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Everyday until Selection Sunday, we’re applying the NCAA Tournament Seeding guidelines to the Bracket Matrix to see where Villanova will land. Be sure to check back daily for the latest!


What a difference a day makes. With bracket makers now having enough time to digest Villanova’s win over Providence, the Wildcats have climbed up a rung and passed Texas Tech in the overall seedings, now sitting at 10th. We also saw a shift at the very top, with Auburn overtaking Kansas for the 4th #1 Seed. How does it all effect the bracket and does Villanova remain in the East Region? Let’s find out.

Bracket Watch: 3/4 Update

Regions West South Mid-West East
Regions West South Mid-West East
1 Seeds Gonzaga (1) Baylor (2) Arizona (3) Auburn (4)
2 Seeds Wisconsin (8) Kentucky (6) Kansas (5) Duke (7)
3 Seeds Texas Tech (11) Purdue (9) Tennessee (12) Villanova (10)
4 Seeds Arkansas (16) UCLA (14) Providence (13) Illinois (15)

Seeding Rules That Caused Shifts

  • Kentucky could not be in the East because of Auburn
  • Texas Tech could not be in the South because of Baylor, and when being placed in the bracket Purdue and Villanova were in the MidWest and East.
  • Tennessee could not be placed in the South because of Kentucky. To maintain seed line, Tennessee was swapped with Purdue and placed in the Mid-West, moving Purdue to the South.
  • Providence could not be in the East because of Villanova
  • Arkansas had to be in the West because SEC schools were already in the three other regions. To maintain seed line, Arkansas was swapped with UCLA, moving UCLA to the South.

Overall True Seed Changes Since Yesterday

  • Auburn (4): Up one, Moved to a #1 Seed
  • Kansas (5): Down one, Moved to a #2 Seed
  • Wisconsin (8): Up one, Moved to a #2 Seed
  • Purdue (9): Down one, Moved to a #3 Seed
  • Villanova (10): Up one
  • Texas Tech (11): Down one
  • UCLA (14): Up one
  • Illinois (15): Down one
  • Arkansas (16): Up one, Moved to a #4 Seed
  • UConn (18): Down two, Moved to a #5 Seed

Impact on Villanova

Outside of Villanova staying in the East, this bracket already looks VERY different from the one we saw yesterday. The Wildcats would now be on course to potentially face Coach K in the Sweet 16, followed by a possible Elite 8 matchup With Bruce Pearl’s Auburn.

But really the big impactful change is Nova bumping up a spot on the true seed line. The higher Villanova can climb while remaining on the three line, the more likely it is that the Selection Committee puts them in Philly. Based on their early bracket preview, they were willing to do it when Nova was the 9th Overall Seed despite the S-Curve dictating they should have gone to the West. That means they’re still going to give location preference to teams on the three line as long as it meets the seeding rules and doesn’t shift the balance of the bracket too much. In the projections we’ve looked at the past two days, everything has come up perfectly for the Wildcats. Check in tomorrow to see if that continues.