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Villanova Bracket Watch: March 5th Update

We’re down to eight days until Selection Sunday!

NCAA BASKETBALL: MAR 25 Div I Men’s Championship - Elite Eight - Team v Team Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Everyday until Selection Sunday, we’re applying the NCAA Tournament Seeding guidelines to the Bracket Matrix to see where Villanova will land. Be sure to check back daily for the latest!

If this weekend is anything like last weekend, we could see some major changes to this bracket projection come Monday morning. But with things staying relatively quiet on Thursday and Friday, for now the bracket remains fairly stable. In fact, it’s exactly the same except for a slight adjustment in true seeds that didn’t change up anything from a bracket standpoint. For those of you who missed it yesterday, here’s where we still stand.

Bracket Watch: 3/5 Update

Regions West South Mid-West East
Regions West South Mid-West East
1 Seeds Gonzaga (1) Baylor (2) Arizona (3) Auburn (4)
2 Seeds Wisconsin (8) Kentucky (7) Kansas (5) Duke (6)
3 Seeds Texas Tech (11) Purdue (9) Tennessee (12) Villanova (10)
4 Seeds Arkansas (16) UCLA (14) Providence (13) Illinois (15)

Seeding Rules That Caused Shifts

  • Kentucky could not be in the East because of Auburn.
  • Texas Tech could not be in the South because of Baylor, and when being placed in the bracket Purdue and Villanova were in the MidWest and East.
  • Tennessee could not be placed in the South because of Kentucky. To maintain seed line, Tennessee was swapped with Purdue and placed in the Mid-West, moving Purdue to the South.
  • Providence could not be in the East because of Villanova.
  • Arkansas had to be in the West because SEC schools were already in the three other regions. To maintain seed line, Arkansas was swapped with UCLA, moving UCLA to the South.

Overall True Seed Changes From Yesterday

  • Duke (6): Up One
  • Kentucky (7): Down One

Impact on Villanova

I know that the comments section was half-joking yesterday that Coach K’s public request for Chicago means he’s going to find someway to the Midwest Region. So just out of Curiosity I decided to shoehorn Duke into the Mid-West to see what that would do to Villanova’s chances at getting into the East. For now, nothing. In this version of the bracket all it does is swap Duke and Kansas because the JayHawks still can’t go to the South region as long as Baylor is there.

What should be known about the request from Duke is while it is better for Villanova that they prefer Chicago over Philly, it doesn’t move the needle all that much. It means that only Providence and Villanova have the East Region as their primary choice of the teams on the top four seed-lines. However, half of the remaining teams have Philadelphia as their second choice after Chicago.

In previous seasons, site preference was only given to the Top seed line. However, it does appear that the committee is willing to break the S-Curve to put teams in the Top 4 seeds closer to home. The evidence is actually Villanova as the 3 Seed in the East from their early bracket reveal a few weeks back. By the S-Curve, Nova should have been placed in the West. However, for no other reason than geographic proximity, they were given the East Region. So far, that is still holding true to form.

Check in tomorrow when we see how another crazy weekend of college hoops may shake things up before the major conference tournaments get underway.